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Charlie Education Kevin Pilots

Southwest Airlines Voluntary Pilot Reduction Options: VSP and ExTO

 

Southwest Airlines, in an effort to reduce its workforce, has just offered pilots Voluntary Separation Pay (VSP) and Extended Emergency Time Off (ExTO). Both are generous packages (in our opinion) and an excellent option for some pilots. How do you know if it’s right for you? In this video, Kevin & Charlie discuss what is in each package, how it may affect your overall financial picture, if you can afford to take one of them, and ultimately how to decide if you should be part of the voluntary reduction.

Not only are we financial planners but Charlie is a fellow SWA pilot (senior FO out of ATL). We understand what it’s like to walk in your shoes and we want to be a resource for you when it comes to making this difficult decision. Give us a chance to run your financial situation through our simulations to determine if VSP or ExTO is the right answer for you. Call us at 865-240-2292.

 

(Please pardon our hazy image quality. We wanted to get this important message out to you quickly and used our laptop to film it, instead of our standard video equipment. Thanks for your understanding!)

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this video will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Moreover, you should not assume that any information or any corresponding discussions serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Leading Edge Financial Planning personnel. The opinions expressed are those of Leading Edge Financial Planning as of 06/04/2020 and are subject to change at any time due to the changes in market or economic conditions.

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Charlie Education Kevin

Why Not Buy Individual Stocks?

So, you want to be a stock picker? This video may make you think twice. There are stories of someone getting lucky with a homerun stock return but it’s rare.  (More than 50% of stocks do not beat their market). Kevin explains why it’s so difficult to successfully invest in individual stocks and the effect of skew. He also examines the history of investment returns when owning the top 5 stocks individually versus owning those stocks within a diversified portfolio.  The information may surprise you!

Explaining Skewness (from Investopedia.com)
– Skewness, in statistics, is the degree of distortion from the symmetrical bell curve in a probability distribution.
– Distributions can exhibit right (positive) skewness or left (negative) skewness to varying degrees.
– Investors note skewness when judging a return distribution because it, like kurtosis, considers the extremes of the data set rather than focusing solely on the average.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this video will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Moreover, you should not assume that any information or any corresponding discussions serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Leading Edge Financial Planning personnel. The opinions expressed are those of Leading Edge Financial Planning as of 06/08/2020 and are subject to change at any time due to the changes in market or economic conditions.

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Charlie Education Kevin Pilots

Warren Buffet Hates Airlines… So What?!

Warren Buffet Hates the Airlines... So What?!

Berkshire Hathaway recently sold its entire stake in Delta, Southwest, American, and United Airlines and stock prices fell after the announcement.  What is interesting is all but one out of the four of the airline’s stock prices have gone higher since the low on May 4th when Warren Buffett’s sale was made public.

Stock pricing adjusts daily to numerous events.  The decision of one investor, albeit a highly successful and world-renowned investor, should not be your only guiding principle of how to handle your investments.  Mr. Buffett has had biases against investing in airlines.  Here is one of his famous quotes from the 2007 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter:

“The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.”

— Warren Buffett, in the 2007 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter

Even Warren Buffet isn’t exempt from making the occasional mistake. Time will tell if his decision to sell was the right one or not.   Individual stocks and market prices are set by the collective knowledge of all investors.  In this video, Kevin discusses how to take advantage of this collective knowledge rather than follow the few outliers who are trying to outsmart the system.

June 10, 2020

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this video will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Moreover, you should not assume that any information or any corresponding discussions serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Leading Edge Financial Planning personnel. The opinions expressed are those of Leading Edge Financial Planning as of 05/21/2020 and are subject to change at any time due to the changes in market or economic conditions.

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Charlie Education Kevin

Don’t Abandon Your Financial Plan in Response to Headlines – This is Why

It’s tempting to abandon your financial plan when the world is experiencing unprecedented circumstances.  Although the pandemic is new and scary, don’t let the headlines play on your fears and knock you off your path.    

History shows that recessions and recoveries are filled with short term spikes and falls. These short term events often serve as a distraction to our long term goals.  Having a financial plan and sticking with it through the ups and downs has proven time and again to give you the best chance of success.  

In truth, the greater potential danger to our financial plan is not the pandemic and market volatility – it’s inflation (the loss of purchasing power in the future). If you react to the headlines and lock in your losses by withdrawing from the market you are also pulling your money from the opportunity to keep up with inflation and therefore, running out of money in retirement.

Stand firm and trust your plan.  Feeling unsure?  Give us a call, 865-240-2292.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this video will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Moreover, you should not assume that any information or any corresponding discussions serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Leading Edge Financial Planning personnel. The opinions expressed are those of Leading Edge Financial Planning as of 05/06/20 and are subject to change at any time due to the changes in market or economic conditions.

June 10, 2020

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Charlie Education Kevin Video

The Shape of Economic Recovery

The coronavirus has wreaked havoc on our financial markets. Now that we are settling into the chaos many economists are starting to predict what shape the recovery might look like; V, U, W, L, etc. What do those letters mean? And does it even matter HOW the economy recovers, as long as it DOES indeed recover?

Kevin walks you through how those letters represent the different recession models and how each could affect your financial plan.

We love getting your questions. Let us know what topics you would like us to cover. 

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this video will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Moreover, you should not assume that any information or any corresponding discussions serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Leading Edge Financial Planning personnel. The opinions expressed are those of Leading Edge Financial Planning as of 04/21/2020 and are subject to change at any time due to the changes in market or economic conditions.

June 10, 2020

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Charlie Education Kevin

5 Things You Can Do to Prepare for This Bear Market

Who could have imagined we would start with the spread of a virus, add in some political election turmoil, and now we have an OPEC price war.  Wow!

Although we can’t control viruses and oil price wars, there are many things we CAN do to prepare for this bear market or recession.  Here are five things to do in order to not freak out and bring peace to your financial life:

1. STOP WATCHING THE NEWS AND START READING IT.

It’s important to be informed.  However, the 24-hour news cycle, selling fear and anxiety, is at an all-time high. Instead of watching TV or sensationalized videos, read your news from reputable sources. This will help reduce your emotional reaction while helping you stay knowledgeable and informed. Call us if you would like suggestions of reputable sources.

2. EVALUATE YOUR PERSONAL BUDGET & BALANCE SHEET.

For those of you that have very low debt and a sufficient emergency fund, you can rest easy.  Even if you’re laid off or furloughed you will have sufficient cash to prevent you from raiding your retirement funds.  If this is not you, consider the following:

● Develop a spending plan to eliminate all short-term, high-interest debt as soon as possible.
● Refocus your spending on necessary items only.
● Increase your emergency savings through automatic payroll deductions.
● Avoid new purchases unless cash is available.

3. CONSIDER A REFI ON YOUR MORTGAGE.

A good friend, and client, recently refinanced his mortgage to a 15-year 2.56% interest rate. This past week we saw mortgage rates fall to the lowest level in almost 50 years. That’s a game-changer for retirement planning!

4. STAY IN THE FIGHT.

You don’t have to be invested in 100% equities all the time, but staying in the market in some capacity is required to capture the long term market gains that are available to all of us.  It’s been shown that leaving the market only to return later may diminish your returns significantly.  In fact, if you miss out on just a few of the positive days in the market, your long-term stock averages could suffer tremendously.  You have to manage risks in the stock market – not avoid them completely.

 

The chart below shows how $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 index, for the 20-year period of 1999 through 2018, would have performed under various scenarios.

5. FOCUS ON YOUR GOALS & YOUR INVESTMENT TIME HORIZON.

Remember, the money you will need in one to five years is not at risk in stocks.  It’s only a paper loss until you sell the stocks. You wouldn’t sell your house or rental real estate property just because the price declined so why would you sell your stocks?  Furthermore, more conservative portfolios recover faster from downturns than aggressive ones.  For example, according to Charlies Schwab, a portfolio with more than 70% stocks and the rest in bonds took more than two years to recover from the 2008 financial crisis, compared with just seven months for a portfolio with more than 70% in bonds and the rest in stocks.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this article will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Moreover, you should not assume that any information or any corresponding discussions serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Leading Edge Financial Planning personnel. The opinions expressed are those of Leading Edge Financial Planning as of 03/12/2020 and are subject to change at any time due to the changes in market or economic conditions.

June 10, 2020

Categories
Charlie Education Kevin

How will the coronavirus affect my investment portfolio?

The question everybody seems to be asking these days is: How will the coronavirus (now officially named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization) affect my investment portfolio? 

Of course, the unsatisfying answer is: we honestly have no idea.  You can count the unknowns.  The virus is now up to more than 73,332* cases and almost 1,870* fatalities—and counting.  But nobody knows whether the virus will eventually run rampant across the Chinese economy or burn itself out.  Nobody knows if it will spread widely beyond China and become a global crisis or remain largely confined to the Middle Kingdom.  Either way, it’s hard to predict the impact of the virus on the Chinese or global economy, much less on the U.S. and global stock markets.

There are three different ways to guesstimate the impact of our latest pandemic:

The first and easiest is to look at how U.S. and world markets responded to past health scares. When the public became aware of the SARS epidemic (a previous strain of the coronavirus) back in 2003, the S&P 500 index fell 14% over the subsequent two months, from mid-January to mid-March. But, according to a historical look-back by the MarketWatch economists, the market was up 20.76% a year later. The Avian flu outbreak in 2006, the Swine flu outbreak in 2009, the Ebola outbreak in 2014 and the Zika epidemic in 2016 saw initial downturns between 5.5% and 7%, but a year later, the markets had recovered by between 10 and 36 percent.

We can note that the S&P 500 index fell 3% in the two weeks after January 17, when the coronavirus outbreak first made headlines. Since then, the index has bounced back to all-time highs.

The second is to assess the impact that the COVID-19 outbreak is having on the Chinese economy—which, while its stocks are seldom a major part of U.S. investment portfolios, would certainly affect the world economy through disrupted supply chains and reduced demand for products and services sold by outside firms. China now makes up 15.5% of the global economy. It is a major purchaser of commodities like oil and agricultural products, and companies as diverse as smart phone makers and auto companies rely on its manufacturing output.

The Chinese government is trying to contain the spread of the virus by imposing severe travel restrictions and by forcing 50 million people in affected areas to remain in their homes—which, of course, means they are not going to work and not being productive. At the same time, however, the Chinese government is pumping liquidity into its economy—an estimated 1.7 trillion yuan from the People’s Bank of China—in order to contain the economic damage it is causing with the quarantine measures. Will the two balance each other out? We can note in passing that the SARS epidemic caused a temporary 2.4% decline in Chinese production. Nobody knows if the new epidemic will have the same, greater or lesser impact.

The third way to evaluate the potential damage of the pandemic is to focus on certain individual companies that are being affected by the initial phase of the outbreak. A recent U.S. News & World Report analysis singled out Carnival Corp., whose Diamond Princess cruise ship is currently quarantined at a dock just off the Japanese coastline—with 3,600 passengers onboard. More than 200 of them have come down with the coronavirus, which means that this single ship has more cases than any individual country besides China. Carnival stock is down about 17% since mid-January.

The article also mentions Wynn Resorts, which has major holdings in China’s gambling Mecca of Macao. The company’s Macao resorts have been shut down by the Chinese government, causing Wynn to lose $2.6 million a day. The stock is down roughly 15% from its peak.

You may not have heard of Yum China Holdings, but it is the parent company of the KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell brands. The $20 billion company has had to shut down its China-based locations, and the stock has lost 15% of its market value this year.

Finally, consider Nike, which has closed half of its company-owned stores and stores managed by partners in China. About 17% of the company’s revenues come from China, and Chinese factories produce about 20% of Nike products. Nike’s stock doesn’t seem to have been hammered like the other companies on this list, but you can expect a reported decline in earnings this quarter.

So what does this mean? Anybody who tells you that they know how the COVID-19 epidemic will play out in American household portfolios would have to be considered a charlatan. We simply don’t know. But so far, history suggests that the market reactions to past pandemics have been temporary, just like all other kinds of market downturns. Not knowing when to get out and back into the markets constrains our options to hanging on and hoping—maybe expecting—that this time around won’t be very much different.

We’re always available for your questions.  Don’t hesitate to reach out, 865-240-2292.

Charlie & Kevin

*As of 02/18/20 according to the World Health Organization

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this video will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Moreover, you should not assume that any information or any corresponding discussions serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Leading Edge Financial Planning personnel. The opinions expressed are those of Leading Edge Financial Planning as of 02/15/2020 and are subject to change at any time due to the changes in market or economic conditions.

Sources:

Of Dollars and Data, How Will Coronavirus Affect Your Portfolio?
MarketWatch
US News & World Report
CNN
Nasdaq.com
Zacks

June 10, 2020

Categories
Charlie Education Kevin Pilots

When Should an Airline Pilot Begin Taking Social Security?

As an airline pilot, you may be eligible to start drawing your Social Security as soon as you retire from the airlines, but should you? As with so many things in finance, it depends. Optimizing your social security benefit is complicated and it can be confusing trying to grasp all of the moving parts. Plus, what about…

 

✈︎  When is your government-defined Full Retirement Age?

✈︎  Will your spouse receive any benefits?

✈︎  Do you anticipate retirement income from other sources?

✈︎  And,… will Social Security even be around by the time I retire? (Spoiler alert: yes, we think it will.)

 

Kevin and Charlie discuss how the answers to these questions correlate and share their 3 RECOMMENDATIONS on how to decide when is right for you to begin your benefit.

We love hearing from you! Please don’t hesitate to call or email if we can help you, 865-240-2292.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this video will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Moreover, you should not assume that any information or any corresponding discussions serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Leading Edge Financial Planning personnel. The opinions expressed are those of Leading Edge Financial Planning as of 02/10/2020 and are subject to change at any time due to the changes in market or economic conditions.

June 10, 2020

Categories
Charlie Education Kevin Pilots Video

Mandatory Pilot Retirement Age Coming Fast? Get a Plan from a Pilot Specialist

Whether retirement is 5 years away or 15, it’s time to plan NOW.

Are you nearing the end of your aviation career? You may not be ready to take off your epaulettes quite so soon, but the FAA currently mandates all airline pilots retire at the age of 65. Are you financially ready to make the transition?

We are airline pilot specialists!

The planners at Leading Edge have years of experience helping pilots from all of the major U.S. airlines grow and protect wealth so they can have as much fun in retirement as they did flying airplanes! In this video, Charlie Mattingly, Principal, CFP®, MBA and fellow airline pilot describes the value Leading Edge can bring to your financial plan.

Want to skip ahead in the video?

Here are the topics broken down by time marker:

00:04  How does Leading Edge Financial Planning help people execute on plans?
00:36  Why is it a good time to invest TODAY vs waiting?
01:12  Leading Edge helps determine if a second business or real estate is a good idea.
02:33  How can Leading Edge help lessen financial emotion?
03:46  Why should a pilot choose Leading Edge?
04:59  Worst and best financial analogies with flying. (Just for fun!)

Click HERE to book a free one-hour consultation.  Or call us at 865-240-2292.

More reading:
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
Fair Treatment for Experienced Pilots Act

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this video will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Moreover, you should not assume that any information or any corresponding discussions serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Leading Edge Financial Planning personnel. The opinions expressed are those of Leading Edge Financial Planning as of 01/27/20 and are subject to change at any time due to the changes in market or economic conditions.

June 10, 2020

Categories
Charlie Education Kevin

2019 Year-End Investment Report

We have just completed the final quarter, not only of the year, but also the decade, so it’s as good a time as any to reflect back on the market behavior for the past year, and also for the past 10 years. The short version is that we have experienced a bull market for the entire ten-year period, with no -20% bear market periods and only a few 10% corrections since June 2009. People who record the history of the markets will remember that the investors of the 2010s participated in the longest bull market in American history – a totally improbable event considering that the decade came right after one of the most dramatic market setbacks in modern times.

Also worth noting is how the predictors of doom were once again totally off-base. When the Federal Reserve Board stepped in to stem the worst of the Great Recession, there were widespread cries that the Fed was “printing money” in a way that would lead to massive inflation and/or the bursting of a stock market bubble. Today, an expansionist Fed is routinely criticized for being too tight, rather than too loose. Inflation, meanwhile, has ranged from 0.7% to 2.1% – which hardly signals a crisis. If you’ve noticed any bubble-bursting in the equities markets, please help us find it.

By any measure, 2019 was a remarkable year for investors – and who could have guessed? Stocks went on sale in December 2018, and many were predicting that the bearish trend would continue through calendar 2019. But investors who took advantage of the lower prices or stayed the course saw well-above-average gains almost literally across the board. The markets went on sale again in August when there were reports of a very slight inversion of the yield curve in the bond markets which (it was widely reported) signaled that a recession was on the near horizon. Those rumors turned out to be false and the yield curve–that is, the difference in bond rates between short-term and long-term issues–had subsequently steepened.

A breakdown shows that just about every investment asset was up strongly in 2019.  The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index — the broadest measure of U.S. stocks — gained 9.08% in the 4th quarter, finishing the year with a hefty 31.02% gain.  The comparable Russell 3000 index was up 25.52% for the year, and has gained an average of 11.83% for the decade of the 2010s.

 

Looking at large cap stocks, the Wilshire U.S. Large Cap index gained 9.09% in the fourth quarter, providing a 31.51% return for the year.  The Russell 1000 large-cap index finished the year with a similar 31.43% gain (averaging a 13.54% gain over the last 10-year period), while the widely-quoted S&P 500 index of large company stocks gained 8.53% during the year’s final quarter and overall finished up 28.88% in calendar 2019 – narrowly losing out to the decade’s best yearly gain of 29.6% in 2017.   Over the last ten years, investors in the S&P 500 saw annualized gains of 11.22% in the value of their holdings.

 

Meanwhile, the Russell Midcap Index finished the 2019 calendar year up 30.54%, averaging 13.19% a year for the decade.

 

As measured by the Wilshire U.S. Small-Cap index, investors in smaller companies posted 9.01% gains in the final quarter, to end the year with a 26.21% return.  The comparable Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index posted a 25.52% gain in 2019.  

 

Even the foreign markets were generous to investors this year. The broad-based EAFE index of companies in developed foreign economies gained 7.81% in the final quarter, and ended the year up 18.44% in dollar terms. However, the past ten years have not been the best times to invest in international stocks; the index recorded an annualized gain of just 2.57% over that time period.  In aggregate, European stocks were up 20.03% in 2019, while EAFE’s Far East Index gained 15.46%.  Emerging market stocks of less developed countries, as represented by the EAFE EM index, were up 11.36% in dollar terms in the fourth quarter, giving these very small components of most investment portfolios a 15.42% gain for the year.  However, their 10-year track record is not enviable: up just 1.20% a year for the decade.

 

Looking over the other investment categories, real estate, as measured by the Wilshire U.S. REIT index, posted a 1.14% loss during the year’s final quarter, but it finished the year with a 25.76% gain.  The S&P GSCI index, which measures commodities returns, gained 8.31% in the 4th quarter, to finish the year up 17.63%.  Looking back, however, commodities returns dramatically lagged U.S. stocks over the past decade: the total return for the commodities index overall was a negative 5.44%.

 

In the bond markets, coupon rates on 10-year Treasury bonds dropped almost a full percentage point, year-on-year, to stand at 1.75% at year end.   Similarly, 30-year government bond yields have fallen from 3.01% at the beginning of the year to 2.38% coupon rates today.  Five-year municipal bonds are yielding, on average, a meager 1.14% a year, while 30-year munis are yielding 2.15% on average.

 

It’s hard to overstate how unusual this long bull market has been in investing history.  Bear markets tend to occur about every 3.5 years, and the previous record was 9.5 years from November 1990 to March of 2000.  However, we still have a ways to go to match the 418% that was achieved in the 1990s.

 

Longer-term, it is certain that we will experience a recession, but no person alive can predict the hour or the day.  Most economists are reluctant to predict an economic downturn when unemployment is at record lows and the slow-growth economy is chugging along with a 2.3% gain in 2019.  2020 might see a recession or at least a slowdown in growth if there is another trade conflict with China, and a shift toward rising interest rates could drive up the cost of debt servicing for corporations that are highly leveraged.  Nobody knows where the Presidential impeachment process will go from here.

 

At the same time, dramatic increases in domestic oil production has lessened the possibility that the economy will experience an energy recession, and healthcare cost increases have moderated over the course of the decade.

 

Similarly, nobody can predict when or how the bull market will end, how deep the coming recession or bear market will be, or, really, anything other than the fact that all past downturns were followed by upturns which took the markets and the economy to new heights.

 

We love hearing from you!  Please don’t hesitate to call or email if we can help you, 865-240-2292.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this article will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Moreover, you should not assume that any information or any corresponding discussions serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Leading Edge Financial Planning personnel. The opinions expressed are those of Leading Edge Financial Planning as of 01/10/2020 and are subject to change at any time due to the changes in market or economic conditions.  This article was written by a guest author.

Sources:
Wilshire index data
Russell index data
S&P index data
Nasdaq index data
Morningstar
International indices
Commodities index data
Treasury market rates
Bond rates
Investors.com
Miami Herald
New York Intelligencer
PWC
Focus Economics
MSN