Pilot Money Guys: Winter is Coming!
I’ll admit I’m a sucker for survival reality shows, particularly shows about people living in Alaska and the Arctic. It’s always amazing to watch as spring starts, these folks must jump right into preparing for the next long winter. With months of darkness, freezing weather, and almost no food available to catch, these folks need to be proactive to have a chance of making it through a successful winter.
There’s a winter coming in our financial lives too. Indeed, there is a chill in the air! It’s time to start preparing now, so that we not only survive the next market crash but thrive. There are plenty of actions we can take now to not only protect us from losing everything, but take advantage of the next crash.
In this episode of The Pilot Money Guys podcast, we are going over how we go from reacting to acting, from surviving to thriving, from freezing and starving to sitting inside your cabin with a nice fire and a moose steak to boot.
Thank you for listening! If you’d like to have a conversation with us about your financial life, please reach out at email@example.com or calling 865-240-2292.
Rob: tip of the cap to you folks.
So welcome to the special edition only for our premium platinum plus VIP select club level members. Dang, we're calling it. Winter is coming now. I know your friends may be asking you, how do I become a premium platinum plus VIP select club level member? Well, it's. You simply download the podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and somewhere else.
I can't really remember your radio Stitcher, Stitcher, and you'll have access to over 13 podcasts of premium platinum plus VIP select club level content and go to YouTube, YouTube and YouTube. YouTube. Yeah, obviously I'm just kidding. All of our listeners, our premium platinum plus VIP select club level members.
So tell your friends and they can become one too. All right. Enough of that. I'm your host wealth manager, Rob. Backlund nice. Some people that I don't like very much call me rubber mallet, but today we have the godfather certified financial planner. Charlie Mattingly. Welcome Charlie, yes, sir. And of course our executive producer and vice-president of podcasting, Mr.
Cal bell, Ben Dickinson. Nice.
Ben: Good to be here. Thanks for the title. Upgrade.
Rob: You bet you you've earned it, buddy. Uh, we're going to start off with a joke of the day. Hold on all day, all you CPAs out there. Kevin, we apologize up front, but here it is. How do you know if your CPA is an extrovert? Because not a CPE because he looks at your shoes when he's talking to you.
That's courtesy of Chris brown.
Charlie: Nice. That's an outgoing CPA right there.
Rob: Fantastic. Let's get into some aviation news. Charlie.
Charlie: All right. Excellent. Excellent. So, uh, everybody loves top 10 lists. So we have one, we have what we found one on bit Luxe, travel.com, top 10 pilots of all time history. I know everybody's done. Yes. Are we on it? I mean, that's what everybody
Rob: wants to know.
Well, there's a guy named Charles on there. Yeah.
Charlie: Top 10 greatest all time. Great pilots in history, according to bit Luxe, travel.com now, um, let's see. I think we start with number one. What's your wants to they didn't number them. Yeah, that's gotta be, well, I'm going to start with number 10 then. All right. Ready? Number 10. Well, let me share my screen with you.
So. The folks on YouTube can, can kind of play along with us here. So here we go. Number 10, Robert Hoover, Robert, he were Bob Hoover's. Anybody know anything about Bob Hoover? Rob
Ben: I'm reading here. He's from Nashville, Tennessee,
Rob: a giant in the community.
Charlie: I've seen him in every air show I've ever been to. And he's always flown this.
Multi-engine like corporate area. And like, that's the weirdest thing ever. It's you know, it's, it's impressive. But I had no idea. He was like an air force fighter pilot during world war II. Oh,
Rob: I didn't know that. Oh man. Yeah. He's, he's incredible. I loved the little spiel there about him becoming a pow and then stealing a plane, a German plane and rescue, and you're flying it out of there.
That's wow. I probably have.
Charlie: Am I talking about the same guy that does the air shows you I'm talking about, right? Yeah. You've seen him before. Yeah. But man, this guys it's decorated. He's crazy. So, all right. That's number 10. Number nine, Eric Hartman. I've never heard of Eric Hartman. He became famous as a fighter pilot during world war II Hartman was a German fighter pilot who would eventually become known as the best in history.
He flew 1,404 combat missions down 352 enemy air. Including seven American fighters. Great. This
Rob: one I'm going to, I might have to throw in just because he's not there. And we already talked about a little bit in the pre-show prep was general Robin olds. Isn't on the list. I might throw him in
Charlie: there. Yep.
That's right. Yeah, we can replace the German. Yep. That's right. All right. Number seven general Chuck Yeager. Chuck Yeager retired us air force fighter pilot forties, 1947 came the first pilot in history to have traveled the speed of sound reaching one Mach 1.07, living to tell about it.
Rob: I flew him on a Southwest flight.
Really? No big deal. Absolutely. It was the landing. It was pretty good. I would say strong to quite strong. Wow. Chuck wouldn't have been as sacrament.
Charlie: Wow, too. Cool. All right. Uh, help me keep track here. Numbers. Chelsea Sully Sullenberger. No, I think we all know about Sally landed in a river somewhere and, and everybody
Rob: was safe and he, uh, went to the prestigious United States air force academy, air force academy as well.
Ben: They have an academy for air force,
Charlie: but, um, in the air force, but I'm not mistaken. I don't see that on here, but yeah, he'd lived. Okay. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, he's, I think it's a contemporary look. He did a good job. I think there's some recency bias going on there. Quite honestly. It's recent. We remember it.
So he's on the list. Otherwise, I don't know. Uh,
Ben: great nickname to Sally, Sally,
Charlie: people like that. That helps. All right. Noelle vine, this, he must be German. Oh, he's American.
Rob: I mean, we got, we got an Alaskan on here.
Charlie: American aviator introduced the airplane to Alaska. What
Rob: Alaskans have more airplanes per resident than any other state take that.
Charlie: great. He was known for his resilience, which needed to be, uh, needed to establish a commercial airline of Frigidaire line. That's crazy. He reportedly, still flew and diagnosed with polio and even continue to fly after losing one of his eyes due to injury in 1940s. Wow. Crazy. Okay. Faster. That's the health exam.
Yeah, no kid. And that's it. You can fail FAA exam like that. Refer to. Our last podcast, right on disability. Yeah. All right. Uh, faster funnier general James Doolittle. Ah, we know about James Doolittle. Holy cow. He does definitely deservedly on the, on the list. Baron Manfred Von Rick, another,
Rob: another German,
Charlie: the German red, the red Baron, the red bear.
They named the pizza after him. Fair enough. Yeah, it must be good. Yup. Amelia Earhart. The ladies are representative. Awesome. Very, very high on the list was Amelia Earhart born in Kansas in 1897. She shook up flying in her twenties. No, she took it up. She didn't shake it up. We took it off. Well kind of shook it up.
I was going to say that's true. That's relevant. She shook
Rob: it up to fly across the Atlantic by
Charlie: herself. Right. That's incredible general Charles Lindbergh. All right. We know him as well. So thank you. Most well-known pilot in the world. Charles Lindbergh got his start in aviation as a parachutist and wing Walker.
Hmm. So Charles Lindbergh was not the first transplant flight ever, but it was the first solo flight of it's CAD. So that's pretty cool. He went to the, or it looks like he went to west point. He reached the rank of Bridget Brigadier general, like you said, Ben metal of honor in 1927, distinguished flying cross 1927 and the congressional golden.
- Number one, any guesses.
Ben: This is two people. It's kind of
Charlie: two people. Yeah. Wilbur and Orville Wright. Number one, I forgot to wait for the drum roll their most famous of all pilots known as flight pioneers. The Wright brothers invented, built and flew the world's first successful motorized airplane took off from kitty Hawk, December 17th, 19 three.
The brothers also invented aircraft controls, making fixed wing flights possible. Wow. Pretty cool. Yeah, that's
Rob: cool. Cool. We'll have to, maybe next time we'll come up with the top 10 all time. Great pilots in movies.
Charlie: Oh, pilots, that actors that played pilots?
Rob: Uh, no, just their characters. Oh, okay. You know, Ted striker.
Oh, that's right. Whose well, here in the pilot. Nice disregard. All right. Excellent. I like it. Anything else on the aviation news front?
Charlie: No, I think Ben's got something though. I, I got a shout out,
Ben: a shout out our own, our own COO Lisa and all the, uh, the, the Marine spouses out there. We had some, uh, she was, she was filling us in on some, some pretty, actually really awesome stuff about, uh, About what's going on in Afghanistan.
And she's a part of a Facebook group of Marine spouses that helped to try and bring some people, some, some translators home and, uh, really did some awesome work. She was sharing us some, some stories from there and some Facebook posts and it was really incredible. Yeah.
Charlie: I don't know. Do you guys get a chance to read those?
Absolutely. Yeah. , it's pretty amazing. What's been going on, you know, it's been pretty tragic, since mid August all hell broke loose in Afghanistan, we're going to avoid talking and placing blame right now and avoid politics right now because what's important is that we get people out right now.
Um, we can talk about the other stuff later. Now. What's cool about this situation. Is that the Marine there's a Marine Corps, a U S M C officer's spouse group on Facebook. And they put all that other stuff aside and they said, let's do something. And so these, these gals, and I'll say gals, because they are,, and, and most of them have Marine Corps husbands on the ground, either over in Afghanistan or, Helping out a state departments in various places.
So this has just been amazing. And to the crux of the story here, these spouses got on Facebook and they said, all right, we're going to coordinate to locate people in Qubole and we're going to get them the heck out of there. So, I mean, How does that happen? I mean, that's awesome. Awesome. Those two, those girls in that group, those spouses group, because let me just read a couple of real quick here.
And this is kind of, they're just coordinate and talking and communicating to people through WhatsApp, Facebook phone, whatever, anywhere in the world, anywhere in the country. One of them says, hello, I need some help. I need the help of some miracle workers. My husband's interpreters family is in or by the water canal, outside the Abbey.
At the Qubole airport. My husband has worked with the state department. I believe all the paperwork is complete. The family's name is, and this is the Afghany family. They're carrying white papers that say professional, the Taliban has been searching for them and they are desperate. I have phone numbers and copies of letters if needed.
So this just, there's just hundreds of these messages going on and on back and forth like, Hey, uh, there's one here. Update. Please help. We have a translators waiting at the north gate. He and his family are trying to get through. It's him, his wife and five children. Can anyone help? He has a passport. They are desperate.
The situation is worsening and we knew, you know, last Thursday was, was terrible. And, uh, but this was prior to that. So they're getting people out of there, you know, there's, you're not going to see this stuff on the news. And again, you're going to see bad stuff on the news. We need to hear that stuff too.
It's important, but this is just ladies making it happen and getting people out of there that helped the U S for the last 20 years. , and the allies. Yeah. The last one I read here is just a really cool meme of, uh, and I'm not going to share this on our screen just for, we don't want people's names up here and all that kind of stuff.
But, uh, one of the spouses, uh, posts a meme with a little baby saying yes, and, the spouse makes a comment on Facebook and says, holy hell. Y'all our guy is safe. Our guy is safe. The Marine spouse mafia has pulled off something, the state department and multiple other groups haven't been able to do that.
This group can move mountains and we could run the whole damn world. So I think that's really cool hats off to those Marine spouses to, to just step up and take the initiative and get it done. I mean, that's incredible. I just can't even say enough for those that took part in that and the difference that they made and even if it was one life they got out of there, one person, it was many more than that, but they save lives.
I mean, that's just. That is incredible.
Ben: Yeah, it really is. And not, not to downplay them, but just, there's just so many groups that were doing that too and helping out and trying to find people and just, just it really, the amount of there's a lot of power. We have a lot of power if we team up and, you know, we can get a lot done and it's, it's pretty inspiring.
Rob: pretty cool. Just, just for a moment here, let's take a, take a second to remember the Marines that actually would. Fell during that Afghanistan, uh, you know, just, I guess we're recording this and August 30th, 2021 this last week. So we're going to take a moment of silence here in this room.
It's pretty, pretty extraordinary what our service men members have gone through. And thanks for sharing that, Charlie, and looking at it up cause it's, it's super important. So, absolutely. Thanks for that. We're going to move on now to our financial topic of the day, which is, you know, comes out of the game of Thrones.
Obviously winter is coming, a market downturn will have. We don't know when we don't know for how long, but we can say with confidence, which we don't say a whole lot, necessarily in this business, but we can say with certainty, I should say that a market downturn will happen. Charlie, what do you think?
Well, let's just, let's define this. Let's let's start putting some, uh, let's start filling in this picture a little bit. Let's define what is a correction, a recession, a depression. Um, what do you think? W what do you got on that? Yeah. So
Charlie: if you look at the headlines enough, and I look at the news, I love which enough, which I've kind of tapered off over the years because you see the same headlines over and over again.
So-and-so expert predicts, so-and-so expert predicted. So it's really a way to sell newspapers and, you know, those places have to sell commercials and ads. So they get on there and they talk about this, but it happens all the time. So what let's talk about a correction, you know, the correction is coming is going to be a headline.
Just go ahead and put it out there. Ben, put me on the headline somewhere. Predicting the next correction it's going to happen. Correction is defined as a 10% decline. Yeah. Or more. I would S I should say, so guess what, let me, let me share something here. Just with our YouTube folks. Maybe they can see this, but.
Corrections happen almost every single year. In fact, it's a really rare exception when they don't happen, because on average it happens every year. And let me just read this. This is from JP Morgan asset management. They update this every single year and I find it fascinating. So basically, despite if in fact, let me just correct.
Correct here every year we average 14.3% decline. Within the year. So it's intra year, not calendar year. It just so happens that we as human beings like to look from January. To December the marks, this talk market does not care about January to December. It happens anywhere in between all the time.
. Let me read this slide real quick. Despite the average injury, your drop a 14.3% annual returns were positive 31 of the last 41 years. And I think this is data from 19, uh, 1980. Here. It is on the, on the slide here, 1980 to 2021.
What do you all think about that?
Rob: Yeah, I, uh, just to kind of wrap that up a little bit, or, you know, the point here I'm going to steal that. Tony Robins, a little bit of his book on shakeable. He's got freedom fact number one on when we were, when we start talking about declines and it's on average corrections have occurred about once a year since the 19 hundreds.
So even if we go back farther once a year, since 1900, uh, uh, it's just, you know, we, we tend to look at the stock market. If you look at the graph of the stock market, we pull back and when you pull way back and you look at it from the a hundred thousand foot. It looks like everything's going up.
Everything's great. But if you zoom in, that's when you see it's the Rocky mountains out there, things are going up and down and sideways and, and, uh, and I think a lot of people, if you know that it's easier to weather the storms. Yeah,
Ben: . Yeah. I remember looking back, um, just to the beginning of March of last year.
Yeah. I was looking at,, how could I not tell that,, COVID was going to happen and crashed the economy and then you look back and it's like down 7%, one day up 5% of the next day down, 6% up, 8% down, 10%, you know, it just goes up and down. But you know, back in my head, Well, all of a sudden on March 23rd, this sidebar had just crashed and that's not really, that's not exactly how it works over the course of a few days and maybe a week.
But yeah, like you said, you zoom in, you see that it's a lot harder to, uh, to really predict these. And when you kind of zoom out and look at it from a macro scale.
Rob: So I think it's important. This is kind of leading right into the next definition, which is a recession, right? So we have a correction decline of 10%.
And then Travis, basically every year yeah. Happens all the time. And then a recession, right. Is a little bit worse. Yeah. It could be a lot worse, I guess, but it's defined as at least six months or two quarters of a negative GDP gen generally identified as a falling GDP or two consecutive quarters of economic decline.
So that's a recession and those happen as well, often. And
Ben: do you got, was it was that last year? Was that even officially a recession?
Charlie: The shortest one on record, the shortest one to
Rob: Okay. GDP decline. Yeah. Yeah,
Charlie: yeah. And so the interesting thing about recessions is most of the time, we don't know where in one until it's almost over and we certainly don't know we're out of it.
Way later. Yeah.
Rob: It's can't even be identified and tell you've had it and tell it's been going on for six months. Yep. You can't even technically consider it a recession. Yeah. So
Charlie: that's the fascinating thing about, what do we do? Well, it's like, you don't even know you're in one, the, the information is so delayed and oftentimes the, the economic board, I forget their official name.
They'll go back and they'll revise that they'll change. for several quarters afterwards as well. So, uh, it's just really hard to, to take action on those kinds of things. Cause, even if you know, you know, we're in a recession or there's going to be a recession, if you don't know the exact timing of that, it's not usable information.
Rob: Right. And those, those a recession happens on average since again, since 1900, every four years. But. It's not like clockwork. It's not like you can set your watch. Oh, four years from now. There's going to be a recession. You can't do that. It's a boom and bust cycle.
And it's changing all the time. Right now. We're in, I think we're in one of the longest expansion periods on record. Maybe not right now because of the COVID. But prior to that, yeah, it was one of the longest expansion periods on record in it and it changes. So we still know what's going to happen.
Charlie: Yeah, Robert, how are we successful going into, during and out of a recession or a correction or whatever it might be.
There are things that we can do. We don't have to sit on our hands, which is really nice to know. Cause I think that's what drives people crazy. I feel like I should do something. In fact, the action that people tend to take is sometimes destructive. We'll talk about that in a minute. We don't believe that you can time these things.
We don't believe you can. Timecode. I think we learned that I think most people would agree. Although at this moment, we're probably now starting to hear about people that, oh, they did know the top and the bottom, but last March, I didn't hear anybody proclaiming the bottom at a time. I was listening. I promise you I was listening.
So what happens, you know, what happened? During these times we get emotional. We get scared. We want to pull our money out. Right. That's the action that we want to take. We don't think that's the right action. We think that's very risky to pull all your money out of the market. The reason I think it's risky is because when do you get back?
And so I pulled the slot, you know, Rob you. And I did that. What lies ahead? And this is a, this is a great slot. Let me try to give the proper credit to people here. This is visual capitalist, the advisor edition, I think advisor dot visual capitalist, and they're really amazing information. So you guys, it was a
Rob: terrible YouTube or not, I don't think.
Charlie: Look at that, but you all tell me, when are you going to get back in the market in 2020? Was there a good time? I mean, April 3rd, global COVID surpasses 1 million, April 20th, oil prices go negative. We had protests, we had violence all through the summer. Did you all know in July 28th, Iran fires a mock at a mock us aircraft.
So I'm assuming they didn't know as mock aircraft carrier. I don't know. But you didn't hear about that? Um, record wildfires last August. Oh, by the way, there was just little thing that happened, early November. We'll called, uh, the election. Right? So you're going to get back in, or just prior to an election that was as divisive as last year.
Ben: I think, and like you said, this is like, when do you get back in? Okay. You may wait. Okay. I'm going to wait a month and see what, see how things are. And then you're like, oh gosh, oil prices go negative for the first time you wait another month. Oh, okay. Well now we're getting all these riots and next month I ran, you know, it's just every time there's always an excuse in a pretty good one to not get back in, actually.
Yeah. If I heard about that Iran thing, I'd be
Charlie: scared. That's right.
Rob: I know. Get to this in a second, but if you're getting out to you're missing out on buying when things are low, when stocks are low and, you know, just to think about it, a full cycle, if you will, of the economy lasts about 4.7 years, 3.2 on average.
Again, these are averages 3.2 years of growth. And then at 1.5 year recession. So that's kind of the cycle that doesn't happen exactly like that all the time. It's obviously the averages of it. Yeah. So, so you just don't know when things are going to happen. So if you're out, I mean the market can turn really quickly and it's erratic and, and the downturns can be deep.
And if you're out, the up, the upside can be very steep obviously. Is that, is it definitely, if you're looking at the YouTube, it's a V. Recovery. Yeah. The stock
Charlie: market. Yeah. Rob, those are great points, man. I love that. The statistic, we use that a lot and when we plan for people's retirement, they need income in a, in a few years, let's say, and my mom retired in 2020, so she's the perfect case study.
And she, we didn't have to sell anything because she was prepared for that. Like you just said about a year and a half is. You know, we double that. We triple that. We make sure that someone has secure income just prior and into retail so that they don't have to worry about the stock market going down.
Your, your income is not going to be compromised. If we have a recession, it can't be, we have to plan for that. And we do. And, and what I have right now up on the screen, What it looks like in real life and you hear stories, you're going to hear stories and fly with people.
I got out in March. Uh, I don't know, one, whatever the top was. I got back in late March but most of the time, this is what happens., this person that you're seeing on the screen here and we'll talk to it here, they stayed in the market. Uh, it was tough. It was, it was like, uh, 12 round boxing match. You're getting pummeled all year long, basically. And Ben, like you mentioned earlier, if you look at the month by month return, it was nasty and it was nasty until about mid summer, late, late fall into the last two months of the year, knocked it out of the park.
This person is stuck with it because we went into , 2020 with a game plan. We knew when they were going to retire, we knew how much they needed to be safe. You know, nothing was compromised. Their retirement goals were intact. They stayed with it. They were, we were proactive when we were prepared for this, even though we didn't know what was gonna happen or when, so they were up, they finished that a conservative portfolio.
They were up pretty decent. So this is what it looks like. You stick with it and it's hard. It's not easy. You want to do something. There are other things to do. We're going to talk about and
Ben: onscreen, we're seeing the eight, 8.2. Yeah. Over over that time.
Charlie: Yeah, not quite a full year to December. And that's a dollar increase of about a hundred thousand bucks on the screen there.
Rob: just to, to clarify for again, for our podcast listeners, we're looking at a slide that shows, this is an investor who stuck with the market. And at the end of almost a year here, they were up 8.2.
Charlie: Yeah, but a hundred thousand bucks in dollar terms. So it's hard to believe that you could go through a year like that.
We just talked about all this stuff that happened, but yet we're up similar person, very similar timeframe, very similar asset level decided that they were going to get out and not just like, Hey, I'm not afraid, but I want to get out. And then that way, if it goes lower, I can reinvest back in and like talking about this stuff, that's really not.
Reasonable to do or execute for that matter because Ben, what you said earlier is it goes down one day, 10% up 10%. We had, we had multiple days like that last March, April, and maybe even into may. So getting a clear picture on that while you're in that battle is nearly impossible. Is this the day that a rebalance and buy, sell my cash and go back into, you know, I mean, it's just not clear ever during the.
So this person really never found the entry point., they exited probably right at the bottom March timeframe, and then just waiting for the time to get back in. You know, there is no time. There's never a great time to get back in. Finally, in November, December timeframe that the money goes back in, end up with a minus 4%, a dollar value down about $45,000.
So again, twos to investors. The the difference there is about 150,000, $145,000 swing in that one year between an investor a and investor B, that's just a case study. And when people tell me,, Hey, the market's up right now this year to date. I don't know what it is exactly, but it's up.
Hey, I want to get out right now because like you said, Rob, the storm is coming. The winter is coming and I would just want to preserve the gain that I have. Okay. That's a logical and reasonable. But then my next question is, well, when do you get back in? Do you stay out forever? When w what's your trigger?
What's your magic signal? There is none. And getting back in is the challenge, and that's where people lose. I'm okay with taking your 10% rate or, , return and running. But how do you get back in that's where people really lose, just like you're seeing on the screen that we're showing it's $150,000 difference in the two similar investors.
And I don't think you can ever get that back. You all my mind, am I wrong? How do you get it back?
Rob: Nope. You, you don't get that back. Yeah. And you're gonna, you're gonna suffer for that. Um, hopefully you learn from it and you don't make the same mistake when the next downturn comes, which we know is coming, obviously.
So those are the tale of two cities, right? Two people right there, 50,000. Yeah. And, uh, the percentages on those at 3.9% and 8.2% gain versus the loss of the 3.9%. And that's, that is why even the, for the folks. Um, now again, we're looking at a slide where the guy got out or a guy or gal got out at the bottom of the market and then tried to get back in.
It's a certain point. And there it's a perfect example of, they just, they sold when the stocks were low and they bought when stocks were high and the exact opposite way. What do you want to do? And it just goes to, the, the whole thought process. Nobody can consistently predict whether the market will rise or fall. And even for the folks that the time to perfectly say you timed it perfectly and you got out right before COVID. The chances of you timing it perfectly to get back in are slim to none, right?
Charlie: Yeah, you're right. And that's a great transition Rob into, well, what, what does this look like in real life?
When I get out of the market, when the news headline is scary and I get it back in when the coast is clear, which those two things we, we don't know, so what does that look like? Well, I can tell you. To get out of the market when things are scary means you go in your account and you sell apple, Amazon,, you name at and T whatever company, mutual fund, I'm talking to mutual funds, ETFs.
If you own individual stocks, you got to sell that stuff and you're locking in losses when you sell it. You're, you know, people say I'm going to be more conservative when things get bad. Well, if you wait until things get bad, And then you become more conservative. That means you're selling and taking a permanent loss and people say, no, it's not permanent because it's going to continue to go down.
Then I re-invest my cash. Well, no, it's going to be stuck. Never happens the way we think it's going to, uh, for example, 2020. So the average investor does very poorly. This is the average of Beck equity investor, about 3% from the 20 year, uh, period of 2001 to 2006. The average equity investor, according to this JP Morgan, we're sharing here.
Think the information comes from Dalbar. So now there's a debate. Some of this information is debatable. You know, maybe they didn't take into consideration costs of investing, et cetera, et cetera. But no, and the last, the point is clear that by becoming more conservative during scary times, we sell low. If we get back in the market, we're buying.
Later on down the road. So that's what it looks like in real life, but we, the language we use is sounds so much better. I'm going to get out, you know, I'm going to get back in later. That sounds pretty cool. Selling at a loss sounds terrible. And that's, that's really the reality. So,
Rob: and if you think you somehow are one with the market, just realize that some of the smartest hedge fund managers in the world.
Have tried to do this and failed and they continue to fail again. No one has met anyone who can consistently time the market. No one has met anyone. Who's met anyone who can consistently time the market. And some of these people, these hedge fund managers, who've got, you know, Harvard degrees, tons of letters behind their name, all access to all kinds of information that you and I will never dream of having have failed to time the market.
. So how do we prepare? What do we do? Obviously we're pilots. So I talk about that. We always talk about simulating it chair, flying it. Be ready. We know winter's coming. We know a recession is coming. We know a corrections. So we need to be ready for that emotionally because of, uh, you know, since caveman days, our emotional response to those kinds of fight or flight, uh, scenarios is usually wrong when it comes to investing.
But if you're ready for it, then you can be, you take the emotion out of it and get it. Charlie, what are some of these strategies that we use so that we can do well, even in the downturn, right? Yeah.
Charlie: I'm sorry to keep interrupting there, but I'm just dying to jump in and get out of here because there's a lot of stuff we can do.
And that's the, that's the misconception is like you just sit on your hands and put up with it. Well, And people say, are you passive? I'm like, well, what does that mean? I hate that word because we're proactive. We're going to plan in, in the flying world, we're going to chair fly the heck out of this. , that's an air force thing maybe I guess, but, um, we're going to practice, we're going to run simulators. We're gonna, talk about it. We're going to study it with our clients, and we're going to show them and, uh, what it's going to look like when this does happen, and I think.
It is like flying. There's some mental preparation. There's some value to that mental preparation, because cause Rob, you said emotionally, it's very difficult once it happens. And Ben, before we got on, you're talking about, Hey, people that have poor balance sheets, they suffer a lot because the stress is multiplied.
If you're a person that's got cash paid off your debt, you're saving a recession is a little bump in the road. Maybe stress. But you got you're buttoned up. You're good to go. In fact, I showed you all the texts. Uh, a friend of mine always has way too much cash because he's afraid to do anything with it all the time.
So I texted him last, March 20, 20. He said, Jason, put your money to work now it's mid-March and it was still nasty. And he said, no way, no way. I said, look, you got cash. There is no recession. If you've got a strong balance sheet, get your money to work. Now's the time. You make money, but it's hard, really hard to do.
So what does that send me a simulator look like? And I've got something on the screen here, but I'll also talk to it. Uh, but basically we simulate people's lives. What's important to you. What do you want to do? What does retirement look like? What's your vision. Then we put price tags to all that stuff.
You know, it's like, ah, this seems like a, uh, an exercise and yeah. Wasting my time, whatever, but it's important to know what you want to do in retirement. It's important to know how much that's going to cost. Then like the simulator we're going to fail an engine or two. What if now you, we have a bad stock market.
What if we have a bad stock market when you're 50? Ah, well, not a big deal. You know, we can survive. We can be fine. What if you have one, when you retire from the airlines at 65 current retirement age, the year you retire, like in 2008, when, when the retirement age was. We had a lot of pilots retiring right into 2008 at age 60.
I just like to be those, those people. So that's the, one of the bad timing scenarios that we run because is one of, I'm not going to say the worst case scenario because of course we could have Armageddon and blah-blah-blah and all that stuff, but it's a tough one and it's a unlucky scenario. So we run that scenario and we go, okay.
Here's what you need to do right now to be prepared for that terrible scenario. Again, the point here is that a recession tomorrow for most of us that are in our accumulating years is not the worst case scenario. The one that you really need to watch out for is the year that you retire. If we have a recession and the stock market tanks, what are you going to do?
And are you prepared? And there's a lot of things that you can do. And, and again, running those scenarios brings a lot of those solutions to the store. Ben, what do you think?
Ben: Yeah, when I think about, just preparing one thing that, comes to my mind is.
Is making sure you have some cash on hand, you have your emergency fund, you have the basics taken care of, I guess you'd say. You can,, avoid , having to sell your investments in a downturn to, to be prepared.
And a lot of that is what we were talking about. You know, we simulate this and we say, Hey, w what, what kind of income do you need in return? We're going to make sure you have that, that way. If, if something even worst case scenario, instead of pulling from your investments that are down, you're going to pull from other areas.
Maybe it's a pension, maybe it's an annuity. Maybe it's bonds, you'll pull from other areas and, that's how we can be proactive, and then maybe when they're Haddish coming, you're going to be like, well, why aren't we selling our stocks? Stocks are falling.
Yeah. Well it's because guess what, actually, you're, you're, you're covered as far as your income. You don't, if you don't need the money from those stocks, Why are you worried? We have the statistics on how often the, or how long these recessions last as, as we've talked about already. But, at least for having a few years of income or, you know, uh, taken care of, and then you don't have to worry as much, um, you know, about the recession, don't worry about
Rob: it. That a statistic again, is a recession lasts, usually lasts about 15 months and the average expansion is 48 months.
So, um, the great recession, even in 2008, 2009 lasted for 18 months. And that was the longest period of economic decline since world war II. Wow. So it doesn't happen a whole lot. And I think it's just so important. Like you're alluding to Ben that you have those different assets that you can pull from,
Ben: and in that time, just that time from really quick, uh, if we, we saw it last year, I mean, if you were 100% equities, even if you're down, you know, you got, you went down, maybe 30%, you were recovered by August.
So even if you were 100% stock, you were recovered, that's pretty amazing. That's the S and P 500, of course we're looking at, but that's pretty amazing. And that's so fast.
Charlie: . . .
A lot of people, you know, Rob, I know you're doing it now, but when I was flying, people would say, man, this next downturn is going to be terrible. This next recession, terrible. I'm like, well, maybe you shouldn't buy the new truck and maybe you should save some cash. I'm stepping off to Florida. Hey, that's too close to home.
I'm hitting too close to home now. But yeah, you know, do the basics and have the basic discipline and the recession comes along. It's a natural part of the economy. It sounds scary. It sounds like somebody screwed something up when we have a recession, but it's a natural part of the economy. , the last thing I'll say before we let you all wrap it up is , we're, we're proactive.
We do all the planning. We think about it. We talk about it, we prepare for it. We know what's going to happen. And then once it happens, it's still difficult, but at least we know what decisions we've talked about in my head. Now, what about when it happens? Do we just sit there on our hands and do nothing because we're not going to sell, w we'd rather not sell unless the client just can't stand it.
And that means we didn't do a good job of evaluating risk going into that, but what are, what can we do once all hell breaks, loose, such as last March. There's lots of things. And the most profitable. One of the most profitable thing to do is take that opportunity. If you're an equity investor, especially.
Is to rebalance with an S equity asset classes. You know, like let's say international does poorly us does great. Well, you're going to sell some over us and you're going to buy some international. , . The other one is, think about taxes, able to look for tax loss, harvesting opportunities.
And,, there are some rules on that and some tax rules on that you got to follow, but there's a great opportunity there to save taxes. , especially if you've got another capital gain that's fairly large and you're trying to exit that business. You could save money on taxes by looking at a tax loss, harvesting, you know, at those opportunities.
And they'll show up there and in, in the Tom's like last March, and then finally, it's a great time, Ben, I think you mentioned it earlier to reassess. Hi Emma. There am I in the right risk bucket? , so those are some things that you can do during,, the, the downturn instead of just sitting on your hands. However, most of the work should be done prior to that. And the last thing I'll say, I promise this is really the last thing I'll say is that if you're nervous about a recession, uh, think about the worst case scenario, which was going to happen when you retire, you can save a little more and you can negate the effects of that.
We've seen it mathematically. You're not emotionally. Now it's still gonna be difficult. If you're nervous about that situation, we can run the numbers. We can show you exactly how to negate that scenario and how to keep it from affecting your retirement goals in the, and that's very doable, you know, so that, that's what we recommend is preparing for that way in advance.
So now I'm really done
Rob: abs, uh, it's great stuff, Charlie. And I just to kind of give people some examples of that asset allocation for, you know, for the lay person, I guess. You're rebalancing. All you do is you have equities or stocks and bonds, right. 70, 30, that mix, whatever it is. And when a downturn happens, your stocks are going to fall way low, maybe the 50%, 60%, whatever it is.
And it's outside of that 70, 30 mix that you want. So then what are you going to do? Well, you're going to buy more stocks. You're going to sell bonds. You're going to buy more stocks and you're automatically buying when it's low and selling. When it's high. That's a great part of asset allocation and tax loss harvesting for you.
For those of you who don't know it, it's basically when you buy a stock and it goes down, you're basically capturing that loss and then buying something else that is similar to it. So you still have a good stock in there, but it is capturing that loss on your tax
Yeah. You nailed it. . I did fail to mention Roth conversions. We did a lot of Roth conversions last March as an opportunity. We were doing some anyway. And all of a sudden, if your account balance goes down or that value of that investments goes down, you can subsequently convert that and pay less taxes, especially if you were going to do that anyway.
So again, a lot of moving parts on a couple of those things, and don't take that as advice because. No, you know, we're talking very general strategies here. And again, there's a lot of tax laws and things that you need to think about, but there are a lot of things to do is the point of the discussion here.
A lot of things to do a lot of opportunities when, when things get scary.
Rob: Yep. Again, rebalance, if you can invest through the downturn dollar cost averaging monthly investing, tax loss, harvesting Roth conversions. Have solid financial principles to stick to those avoid bad debt, build your savings, invest for the longterm.
That's what we're talking about.
Ben: Okay. , quick thing from the,, young pilots out there, , Hey, a young person you should be happy.
There's a recession to some degree because you can buy those. You can buy ownership in companies. And we joked about it about me. Hey Ben, you should be pumped right now. You go by it by some of these come by and you're like, apple, go buy some apple. Like you just got a 20% discount. Yeah. Okay. You know, and obviously no one wants a recession, but if you're a young person take advantage of those opportunities, if you see the market is down, I know it's going to be very tough because it was tough for me.
I looked at it, you know, you're watching the news, everything's going to hell in a hand basket, but you know, it's. It's a great time. Great time to take advantage of it.
Rob: point. Yeah. And remember if the downturn does appear, it's only a matter of time before things will start looking up again.
Charlie: Yep. And just for those people on YouTube right now, that is not Benz underoos on his microphone.
No, just want to clarify. Let's open we'd we'd we'd clear that yeah. We have a problem with our microphones. You know, we need to have we're too cheap to buy those little furry things. Those are not bands underoos on his microphone. That
Rob: is a,
Charlie: what is that? Ben,
Ben: allegedly not my underoos look. I, I had to find something to cover it up full disclosure, and apparently it helps with the audio quality
Rob: when you sound great professional.
Yeah. I'm going to get so much on the ruse.
Ah, just kidding. Just kidding. Okay. Anything else? At least? Yes. Anyway. Right last a couple of quotes. We'll leave you with these two are from burden molecule, the author of a random walk down wall street. Very smart guy. The majority of investors failed to take full advantage of the incredible power of compounding the multiplying power of growth times growth.
And the second one is it is not hard to make money in the market. What is hard to avoid is the alluring temptation to throw your money away on short, get rich quick speculative binges. It is an obvious lesson, but one frequently ignored Burton Malkiel. There that's it. Folks we've arrived at our final destination.
Let us be the first to welcome you to the end of flight 14. Thank you for joining us here at the pilot money guys podcast. If you have any questions, shoot us an email. firstname.lastname@example.org. If you like what you heard or even if you didn't hit that subscribe button, how about that? So we can reach more people and out.
Remember the world makes way for those who know where they're going. So plan accordingly.
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this Podcast will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Moreover, you should not assume that any information or any corresponding discussions serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Leading Edge Financial Planning personnel. The opinions expressed are those of Leading Edge Financial Planning as of 09/07/2021 and are subject to change at any time due to the changes in market or economic conditions.